By Sanya Osha

For the first time since South Africa’s independence in 1994, the ruling African National Congress party (ANC) is without an overwhelming electoral majority. In the recent May 2024 elections, its previously sizeable share of the vote dropped from 57% in 2019 to an alarmingly low 40%. The ANC would now be compelled to form a coalition government with other parties. In many ways, this is uncharted territory and everyone is jittery. There is market and policy uncertainty and the mood in the nation is tense.

And who brought about this uncertain state of affairs? Jacob Zuma, the former president of the republic from 2009-2018. During his tenure, he plunged his party (the ANC) and the country into all sorts of scandals. Even before he assumed office as president, he was faced with corruption allegations and a major rape case. After several delays, adjournments and various hitches, the corruption case is still ongoing at astronomical costs to the tax payer. He was however able to beat the rape charge after an intense court battle.

In terms of scandals and serious missteps, his tenure was no better. From Nkandlagate, in which unauthorized state funds were employed to develop Zuma’s obscenely large private estate in his hometown, Nkandla, to Guptagate - by which the Gupta brothers who are Indian, exerted illegal powers and influence on the South African state for dubious financial gain - Zuma was dogged by upheavals that would have ended the career of any other politician, but he miraculously shouldered on. Eventually, even his party had to force him out of office. During the Zuma years, the term ‘state capture’ became prominent in national discourse. And this refers to the phenomenon of private and undemocratic interests - often shady - who exert undue influence and control over constitutional authorities for illicit financial gain.

After his exit from power, he had attempted to install his former wife and outgoing minister, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma as his successor at the ANC general congress in 2017, but failed. A new faction had risen to power under current president Cyril Ramaphosa that wasn’t advancing Zuma’s agenda. The Zondo Commission established by Ramaphosa to investigate corruption and state capture concluded that Zuma has significant charges to face. These charges concern the ethical conduct of his government and its shady association with the Gupta Brothers who are perceived as the masterminds behind state capture in which probably billions of Rands went missing. And so Zuma’s retirement hasn’t been quiet like his predecessors, notably Thabo Mbeki and Kgalema Motlanthe. He faces various court cases which he and his lawyers do everything within their reach to delay or postpone. But it seems Zuma is up to the challenge.

Late last year, he announced he was joining the newly formed uMkhonto we Sizwe (Spear of the Nation) Party or MK for short. First of all, the name is also that of ANC’s military wing during the apartheid years, so there was a court battle which MK eventually won. After ongoing internal squabbles over the leadership of the party, MK would win almost 15% of the vote making it the third largest political party in the country. It also placed it in a position to act as kingmaker during the tortuous horse-trading to form a coalition government.

Currently, South Africa is at a crossroads, one as potentially decisive as the one it faced during the moments before independence, when anti-apartheid struggle stalwart Chris Hani was assassinated in 1993. South Africa barely escaped a civil war during those trying moments.

And once again, it is confronted with a series of dilemmas that could lead to the implosion of the country if not addressed with the required type of visionary leadership and collective sacrifice. It seems business leaders are advocating an ANC-Democratic Alliance (DA) coalition to steer the country towards progress for the next five years. The DA had gained 21% of the national vote. But leftist radicals and advocates of socioeconomic transformation within the ANC are having none of it. Analysts claim that if an ANC-DA coalition occurs, it would lead to a further splintering of the ANC following the breakaway of Julius Malema’s Economic Freedom Fighters Party (EFF) more than a decade ago, and mostly recently MK. It seems certain that if that were to occur, the ANC would never be the same and might become an opposition party rather than a ruling party.

There are also the significant questions of ideology to consider. ANC National Executive Committee (NEC) member Lindiwe Sisulu, who had served in government for several years in different ministerial portfolios, thinks it is impertinent for the ANC to even contemplate getting into a coalition with the DA given the divergent agendas and orientations of the two parties. However, Rob Hersov, an important voice in South African business circles argues that such a coalition might save South Africa from impending catastrophe if managed properly. On the other hand, Sisulu’s grouse is that because the ANC hasn’t been able to deliver on its various electoral mandates such as reducing inequality, creating enough jobs, building a decent health care system, education etc., it was ideologically unfeasible to partner with parties such as the DA which, in her view, represents only white minority interests. This is just one of the differences that exist in the ideological front. Of course, there are others which vary according to different parties and their various agendas. It would be interesting to observe how South Africa navigates this ideological minefield and ultimately attains meaningful sociopolitical cohesion.

But some commentators paint an even bleaker picture for South Africa if MK is able to forge ahead with its agenda as the country’s third most dominant party. Vladimir Putin and Russia would have a stronger say in South African affairs. A Kremlin focused approach in policy making and international affairs would be adopted to further alienate the west and its allies. Much of the South African business and financial sectors would be plunged into uncertainty. The economic meltdowns in pro-socialist Venezuela and land reformist Zimbabwe are often mentioned as possible scenarios for South Africa.

At the moment, no one is sure what would occur. Meanwhile, the uncertainty has emboldened certain Mafia-type groups to exert themselves in the construction business, transport sector and various forms of vigilantism. This is most evident in the KwaZulu-Natal province, Zuma’s home turf. I called a few of my friends in the province who are foreign nationals and they report that the mood is not only tense but xenophobic. Vigilantes are already moving from one business establishment to the next fishing out foreigners. Almost since the dawn of South African independence, home-grown black nationalism and Zulu (Zuma’s ethnicity) ethnonationalism have been linked to the rise of xenophobia and its accompanying widespread violence. The precise term for anti-black African hate is Afrophobia. This has led to ultra-nationalist and pro-xenophobic parties such as the Patriotic Alliance (PA) gaining as many as nine seats in parliament in the last elections.

These indeed are uncertain times for all as the ANC jostles desperately for coalition partners. Only time would tell if this desperation would end in an effective coalition government by June 16 which is the stipulated deadline.

The X factor tells us a few things would never be the same again. Almost overnight, South Africa has been changed irrevocably. The ANC will never be the same again. Politics as a whole in the country has also been permanently transformed. As for the political future of the country, it is hard to say at this juncture: Everything is up for grabs.

The ANC, DA the Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP), Patriotic Alliance (PA) and GOOD have, in principle, formed what is called a government of national unity (GNU), similar to what was created during Nelson Mandela’s tenure. However, the ANC during Mandela’s era had an overwhelming majority and sought to pursue a politics of reconciliation. Under a Ramphosa led administration, the GNU has resolved to be committed to certain principles and shared objectives such as constitutionalism, non-racialism, social justice and the upliftment of all South Africans from the shackles of poverty. In the present times, anti-constitutionalist sentiments (which is termed absolutionism in public discourse) are being fuelled by growing inequality, landlessness and high unemployment rates. Amid such generalised despondency, the rhetoric of constitutionalism and reconciliation is becoming hallow and perhaps increasingly out of touch with reality. Hence the popularity of parties such as the MK or even the EFF. The dynamics of coalition would have to confront these pressing political challenges in order to be both feasible and credible. Consequently, the X factor in this equation refers to the unknown variable in forging coalition politics in times of mass social discontent, angst and considerable political uncertainty.